Differentiable Maximum Likelihood Noise Estimation for Quantum Error Correction

Accurate noise estimation is essential for fault-tolerant quantum computing, since decoding per formance depends critically on the fidelity of circuit-level noise parameters. We introduce a differ entiable Maximum Likelihood Estimation (dMLE) framework that learns these parameters directly from experimental syndrome data using likelihood gradients, with no decoder in the training loop. Mapping syndrome likelihoods to statistical-mechanical models enables exact and efficient evalua tion via planar solvers for repetition codes and tensor networks (TNs) for surface codes, extending the exact treatment to code distance d = 5 with a small number of rounds, and, via spatial subsam pling combined with time-translation symmetry, to larger codes and larger round counts. Across four experimental superconducting datasets, dMLE reduces logical error rates by up to 30.6% for repetition codes. On the Sycamore d = 3 surface code, a TN decoder using the dMLE prior attains a logical error rate comparable to that reported for state-of-the-art AlphaQubit, using standard syndromes alone without auxiliary leakage data. On the larger d = 5 surface code the dMLE prior lowers the logical error rate of the TN and Tesseract decoders by 7.18% and 5.23% relative to a prior optimized by reinforcement learning; at d = 7 it lowers that of Tesseract by 4.56% and 4.83% in the X and Z bases.