Hearsay or Fact? How Framing and Elicitation Shape LLM Probability Updates

cs.CL, cs.AI

Submitted: 2026-10-20

Updated: 2026-10-20

Comments: 27 pages, 3 figures, 8 tables. v2 adds four model configurations (gpt-oss-120b, claude-sonnet-5.5, gemini-3.8-flash at two reasoning efforts) run with the same protocol, and an exploratory analysis of candidate spread. Code and data: https://github.com/asj252/llm-judgment-studies

License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

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