How does a galaxy's quenching probability depend on its black hole's mass?

arXiv:2610.27061 · astro-ph.GA · Submitted 2026-10-19 · Read on arXiv

astro-ph.GA

Submitted: 2026-10-19

Updated: 2026-10-19

Comments: 11 pages, 4 figures

License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

The gist: We develop a parametric toy model to explore how black hole mass scatter σ BH and the dependence of the quenching probability per unit time on black hole mass, parameterized as a power law with

Abstract

We develop a parametric toy model to explore how black hole mass scatter σ BH and the dependence of the quenching probability per unit time on black hole mass, parameterized as a power law with index q, jointly control the faint-end slope α of the stellar mass function of quenched central galaxies. By varying σ BH and q, we identify two regimes. At low scatter, σ BH 0.4 dex, α is strongly sensitive to q. Gradual quenching, represented by low q, produces shallow slopes, while sharp thresholds, with high q, produce steep mass functions, making α a powerful diagnostic of AGN feedback prescriptions. At large scatter, σ BH 0.6 dex, models with vastly different q converge to similar quenched mass functions, because the intrinsic scatter erases the imprint of the feedback implementation. Comparing to cosmological hydrodynamical simulations and semianalytic models, only models with σ BH 0.4 dex match the observed faint-end slope of α about 0.7. SAGE, Dark Sage, and COLIBRE, with σ BH of 2.0, 0.6, and 0.4 dex, respectively, reproduce this slope, whereas IllustrisTNG and EAGLE, with σ BH 0.2 dex, produce steeper slopes. Current observational estimates of σ BH allow a wide range of q 0.8, so the observed slope alone cannot identify the quenching prescription. If σ BH is small, simultaneous measurements of α and σ BH can distinguish between competing AGN feedback models.

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