LLM Evolution in a Simple Simulated Market

Arguments that AI systems will evolve in harmful ways are largely made in the abstract. We provide a concrete empirical example. We simulate simple markets consisting of populations of twenty Large Language Model agents tasked with solving arithmetic problems. Agents differ only in their system prompt; those that go bankrupt are removed and replaced by mutated copies of the prompts of successful agents. Two market conditions select for opposite phenotypes: a market that rewards accuracy produces agents with high accuracy (94%) and high token use; a market that charges per token produces agents with low accuracy (10%) and low token use. In the second market, only tokens are incentivised yet we see a collapse in accuracy. Token use and accuracy are correlated traits such that selection on one also moves the other, and behaviour adapts along an unpriced dimension. A third neutral condition with no selection allows us to separate these effects from bias in the mutation operator. Adaptation occurs through a collective optimisation process that operates above the level of individual agents, who are never told the payment rule, do not receive feedback, and have no memory.