CTIA-ODE: Continuous-Time Inter-Variable Attention for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2610.19831 · cs.LG · Submitted 2026-10-14 · Read on arXiv

cs.LG

Submitted: 2026-10-14

Updated: 2026-10-14

License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

The gist: Although multivariate time series forecasting has broad application prospects, effectively incorporating exogenous variables remains challenging.

Terminology

Abstract

Although multivariate time series forecasting has broad application prospects, effectively incorporating exogenous variables remains challenging. Prevailing discrete-time architectures often impose rigid temporal alignment across heterogeneous variables, which may limit their ability to capture continuously evolving external effects. To address this limitation, we introduce CTIA-ODE, a continuous-time forecasting framework centered on Continuous-Time Inter-Variable Attention (CTIA). Specifically, CTIA is embedded within an ordinary differential equation (ODE) solver, enabling the continuously evolving endogenous trajectory to dynamically query a static exogenous context along the integration path without requiring explicit temporal alignment. To improve the stability of the continuous latent dynamics, we further introduce a dual-stabilization strategy: architecturally, a Linear Residual Augmentation (LRA) module provides a macroscopic trend anchor, while an Outlier-Robust Hybrid Loss (ORHL) mitigates the influence of heavy-tailed anomalies during optimization. Extensive experiments across eight real-world datasets demonstrate that CTIA-ODE achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance across diverse datasets and prediction horizons, while maintaining a favorable accuracy-efficiency trade-off with a compact memory footprint and low inference latency, particularly under long-horizon forecasting settings. Anonymous code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/CTIA-ODE-15A6/.

Related papers