Neural Supervised Clustering for Learning Individualized Treatment Rules with Many Treatments

arXiv:2610.19104 · stat.ML, cs.LG, stat.ME · Submitted 2026-10-13 · Read on arXiv

stat.ML, cs.LG, stat.ME

Submitted: 2026-10-13

Updated: 2026-10-13

Comments: 13 pages, 6 figures

License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/

The gist: Learning an individualized treatment rule (ITR) with many treatments requires estimating treatment-specific effects from limited observations per arm.

Terminology

Abstract

Learning an individualized treatment rule (ITR) with many treatments requires estimating treatment-specific effects from limited observations per arm. Treatments with similar conditional responses can share information, but linear contrast models may miss nonlinear heterogeneity. We propose nonlinear supervised clustering fusion (NSCF), a neural Q-learning framework with a shared nonlinear covariate representation and low-dimensional treatment embeddings. Pairwise fusion groups treatments with similar learned contrasts, yielding an ITR and an interpretable partition. An alternating algorithm combines neural training, embedding fusion, validation-based partition selection, and unpenalized grouped refitting. NSCF lowers regret relative to a strong neural reference in nonlinear exact-sharing simulations; perturbations characterize the limits of hard sharing. In a melanoma xenograft application, NSCF improves average policy value over the neural reference. These results support nonlinear representation learning with supervised treatment fusion when treatment effects exhibit shared structure.

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