Relining or Replacement: How Timing, Costs, and Infrastructure Shape U.S. Primary Steel Decarbonization

Imminent blast furnace relinings create a consequential investment window for U.S. primary steel decarbonization. Using plant-level capacity planning and stochastic operations modeling, we quantify the costs, infrastructure, and fiscal requirements to transition legacy blast furnace sites to direct reduction under supply-side incentives. Under baseline assumptions, post-subsidy premiums above average blast furnace costs, including relining, are 272 to 427 dollars per ton of steel for near-zero-emission hydrogen-based direct reduction and 115 to 181 dollars for natural-gas-based production. Representative facilities producing two million tons of steel annually at legacy locations require approximately 4 to 6.5 and 0.7 to 1.1 GW of renewable generation and battery storage, respectively. This translates to 65 and 12 GW across the unrelined fleet for hydrogen- and natural gas-based pathways, respectively. These findings connect replacement timing to costs, infrastructure, and public support, motivating a sequenced transition through clean-powered natural-gas-based direct reduction to avert blast furnace relining, reduce emissions by 57 percent relative to blast furnaces, and preserve options for deeper decarbonization through hydrogen substitution or carbon capture.