OccludeBench: Can VLMs Find What's Missing?

How well can vision-language models (VLMs) reason about what is missing from an image? We study this question with OccludeBench, a manually curated benchmark for recovering fully occluded objects from the visual evidence that remains. OccludeBench distinguishes direct cases, where the hidden object must be recovered from a specific physical cue such as a shadow or reflection, from inferential cases, where it can be inferred from broader scene context. Across five VLMs, accuracy averages 42.7% on direct cases versus 62.7% on inferential cases, exhibiting a 20.0-point gap. Humans attain higher accuracies of 63.4% versus 68.5% for direct and inferential images, respectively, with no significant gap. To locate this failure, we introduce OccludeTrace, a four-stage diagnostic that isolates where the visual reasoning process breaks down. The bottleneck emerges when models must recover the relevant object from the projection within the full image: they succeed on only 50% of failed examples, compared with 91% of examples they answer correctly. Extended reasoning, tool use, and few-shot prompting yield inconsistent improvements and do not reliably eliminate the gap. In contrast, an inpaint-then-confront intervention, which prompts models to first generate a candidate hidden object and then evaluate that hypothesis against the visible physical cue, reduces the gap to a statistically non-significant difference for both models with image-generation capabilities. Together, our results establish a tractable, controlled diagnostic for isolating how VLMs reason about visual content that is missing from an image.