Predictions for Short Gamma-Ray Burst Detections by COSI

The Compton Spectrometer and Imager (COSI) is a soft gamma-ray telescope scheduled to launch in 2027. COSI will trigger onboard the spacecraft in response to short-duration transients, including gamma-ray bursts, and it will promptly disseminate alerts which include localizations to the community. This will enable rapid follow-up observations of the afterglow and associations with transients identified by other instruments. By simulating COSI observations of short gamma-ray bursts (sGRBs) and processing them with the trigger algorithm which will run onboard the spacecraft, we estimate the sensitivity of COSI to sGRBs. We then convolve this with a simulated set of sGRBs representing the intrinsic population in the universe to predict the rate that will be detected by COSI. We find that COSI is expected to trigger on about 47-89 sGRBs per year with about 7-10 localized to within 2.5°. With the gravitational wave sensitivity anticipated in the O5 run, we predict 0-3 joint detections with gravitational waves.