Gravitational-wave background from supermassive black holes without merger trees: Tidally regulated mergers and direct inference from the NANOGrav 15 yr data

We present a semi-analytic framework that computes the gravitational-wave background (GWB) from supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries by direct integration of an N-body-recalibrated extended Press-Schechter accretion kernel, bypassing Monte Carlo merger trees entirely. The calculation is resolution-free and fast enough to be sampled directly against pulsar-timing data with no emulator or precomputed model bank. Between halo accretion and black-hole binary formation, we couple the satellite's simulation-calibrated tidal mass loss continuously to Chandrasekhar dynamical friction. Satellites below a sharp, nearly redshift-independent mass-ratio threshold, ξ 0.04, are stripped faster than they sink and stall: their drag collapses onto the stellar core, and 38% of accreted satellites are unmerged by z=0. Combining this population model with per-binary stellar-hardening turnovers and eccentric spectra, we sample the five-parameter posterior directly against the NANOGrav 15 yr Hellings-Downs-correlated free spectrum, excluding the 15.8 nHz bin, whose excess power a subsequent chromatic-noise reanalysis attributes to pulsar noise. The data prefer a black-hole mass normalization +0.31+0.20-0.23 dex above the locally calibrated black-hole-bulge mass relation, consistent with earlier indications that the nanohertz background is loud relative to local SMBH calibrations and robust to the delay model, merger kernel, local mass calibration, and its redshift evolution. The spectrum is compatible with, but does not require, eccentric binaries or dense stellar environments.