Diffusion-Based Stress Testing of Overload Monitoring for Resilient Emergency Cellular Networks Using Internet CDR Proxies

Disasters can overload cellular control-plane signaling within minutes, yet fine-grained Radio Resource Control (RRC) or Next Generation (NG) Application Protocol (NGAP) telemetry is privacy-sensitive and costly to collect for analytics. Many emergency monitoring pipelines therefore rely on coarse Call Detail Record (CDR) aggregates. We treat Internet activity in CDR grids as a practical proxy for hidden signaling stress under that constraint. We train a lightweight convolutional neural network (CNN) on stylized overload injections, stress-test it with diffusion-synthesized surges that preserve normal traffic structure, and adapt the detector by retraining on hard synthetic samples. Under stress-test conditions, the default alert threshold fails even though receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves stay strong: the detector still assigns overloaded cells a larger overload probability than normal cells, but those probabilities fall below the default cutoff 0.5 and are labeled normal, so the F1-maximizing threshold -- selected post hoc on the same stress-test grids (oracle τ*) -- shifts by 0.32 plus or minus 0.03 (operating-point drift). Across three random seeds, hard-sample adaptation raises thresholded performance (F1) from 0% (no alerts at the default cutoff 0.5 on any seed) to 85.67 plus or minus 14.37 % and ranking from ROC-AUC 0.886 plus or minus 0.040 to 0.99996 plus or minus 0.00007. Diffusion-synthesized surges expose threshold fragility that matched-condition training -- training and testing on the same stylized injections -- hides, and hard-sample adaptation restores usable alerts at the default cutoff. Together, these steps define a reusable pre-deployment stress test for emergency monitors. Internet-only CDR input further supports lightweight AI-native workflows that combine monitoring, recalibration, and adaptation.