When, Not How Much: Evaluating Time-Series Foundation Models on Sparse Events

arXiv:2609.39386 · cs.LG · Submitted 2026-09-30 · Read on arXiv

cs.LG

Submitted: 2026-09-30

Updated: 2026-09-30

License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

Terminology

• Foundation Model — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Foundation Models — 1× in this paper · explained in 7 episodes

Sources

• GIFT-Eval: A Benchmark For General Time Series Forecasting Model Evaluation
• Chronos-2: From Univariate to Universal Forecasting
• Aionoscope: Debugging Latent-State Accessibility in Time-Series Representations
• Accuracy Is Not Service: A Decision-Aware Benchmark for Intermittent-Demand Forecasting
• Toto 2.0: Time Series Forecasting Enters the Scaling Era
• Moirai 2.0: When Less Is More for Time Series Forecasting
• SPADE-S: A Sparsity-Robust Foundational Forecaster

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