Do World Models Make Better Robots? A Survey of Evaluation Benchmarks for Predictive Embodied Intelligence

arXiv:2609.29669 · cs.RO, cs.AI · Submitted 2026-08-30 · Read on arXiv

cs.RO, cs.AI

Submitted: 2026-08-30

Updated: 2026-08-30

Comments: 34 pages, 11 figures, 13 tables

License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

The gist: Robot learning now advances along two tracks that rarely meet.

Terminology

Abstract

Robot learning now advances along two tracks that rarely meet. On one side, direct Vision-Language-Action (VLA) policies map observations to actions and are scored by closed-loop task success. On the other, predictive and generative world models forecast future observations and are scored by open-loop prediction or generation quality. A natural question sits between them: does world modelling earn a measurable, closed-loop advantage over a direct policy, and for which robotic capabilities? We argue that the field cannot yet answer this question, and that the reason is a gap in how it is measured, not in the models themselves. World-model benchmarks score prediction without ever executing it, while task-success suites host a single policy and never build a world-model versus VLA contrast. This survey maps the evaluation landscape around that gap. We catalogue 160 web-verified benchmarks spanning 2017 to 2026 and organise them by evaluation mode, robotic capability, and model family into four lanes: policy suites, embodied agents, world model evaluation, and prediction-to-action bridges. Across the corpus, 138 of 160 benchmarks are model-agnostic and only 11 (7%) build an explicit VLA-versus-world-model contrast; counterfactual capability is almost entirely unmeasured, and only four benchmarks turn prediction into executed action. We contribute an operational taxonomy, a coverage comparison against the eight closest surveys (ours is the only one to cross capability with model family), an evaluation loop that isolates the advantage of prediction, and an actionable protocol of four advantage-aware metrics anchored on named testbeds. The organising claim is not that world models help or do not help, but that answering the question requires benchmarks built to ask it.

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