Binary-black hole spin population results may be driven by prior degeneracies

Gravitational waves carry information on the spins of merging binary-black holes. The orientations of their spins relative to their orbits ("tilts")---while challenging to measure---differentiate the astrophysical formation mechanisms by which merging black hole binaries may form. Multiple analyses have reported tentative evidence that black hole spins are preferentially oriented in the plane of the binary orbit. We show that these results are likely extrapolated from more easily measurable "effective spin" parameters which characterize the gravitational-wave inspiral of black hole binaries but may not uniquely constrain their astrophysical formation. In particular, we reproduce a peak in the spin tilt distribution with information about the marginal effective spin distributions alone. We propose a geometric picture to compare constraints on effective spins to standard population modeling assumptions, suggesting that current inferences of a preferred spin orientation are spurious.