From Portraits to Pathology: Probing Diagnostic Overreach in Vision-Language Models

Many medical conditions require diagnosis through detailed, multi-context clinical assessment rather than from visual appearance alone. Despite this, vision-language models (VLMs) are increasingly queried to interpret images in ways that touch on medical or diagnostic judgments, raising safety concerns when such inferences are unsupported. ASD diagnosis requires behavioral and developmental evidence, not static facial photographs. We audit whether VLMs abstain from this unanswerable paired-image query, and whether expressions sway non-abstaining choices. We introduce PARITY (Paired Assessment with Reused Identity), a synthetic, demographically balanced set of identity-controlled neutral/expression portrait pairs with neutral-neutral controls. All identities are synthetic and have no ASD status; because the query is unanswerable from images, any non-abstaining selection is treated as a harmful attribution. Across contemporary VLMs, we find a clear split between refusal-first models and speculative models; in the latter, certain expressions disproportionately trigger harmful selections. Clinical guardrails and single-image framing substantially increase abstention, suggesting actionable mitigations in both prompting and interface design