Online Reinforcement Learning in the Met Office Unified Model through Distributed Model-Agent Coupling
cs.LG
Submitted: 2026-09-02
Updated: 2026-09-13
Comments: 24 pages, 13 figures
License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
The gist: Machine-learnt corrections can complement numerical weather prediction provided that they operate stably within an evolving numerical model.
Terminology
Abstract
Machine-learnt corrections can complement numerical weather prediction provided that they operate stably within an evolving numerical model. In this study, we couple the Met Office (UKMO) Unified Model (UM) with distributed reinforcement-learning agents through rank-local tensors. A column-aware deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG) actor uses local vertical structure together with full-column context to apply bounded corrections to potential temperature and horizontal wind. During training, we perform ten nudged 6-hr 12-min forecasts, with nudging towards the UKMO operational analysis providing an immediate counterfactual target from which the policy learns. The resulting actor is then frozen and applied to a non-nudged forecast without access to analysis inputs or further weight updates. Relative to a matched non-nudged native forecast at +6 h, the corrected forecast reduces global latitude-weighted MAE by 2.85% for Z 500, 2.16% for MSLP, 5.16% for T 500 and 2.27% for T 1.5 m, with an observed 3.57% wall-time overhead compared to native execution. Even though training and inference share the same initialisation, this single-case experiment demonstrates significant promise and feasibility, laying the groundwork for RL-based bias correction and parametrisations within operational systems.
Sources
- Earth System Foundation Model (ESFM): A unified framework for heterogeneous data integration and forecasting
- FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators
Related papers
- Polynomial-Augmented Neural Networks (PANNs) with Weak Orthogonality Constraints for Enhanced Function and PDE Approximation
- AIRL-S: Unifying Reinforcement Learning and Search-Based Test-Time Scaling via Adversarial Inverse Reinforcement Learning
- Transformers as Bayesian In-Context Experimenters: Smoothness-Adaptive Efficient ATE Estimation
- Convergence issues in Relational Concept Analysis based on AOC-posets
- Beliefs Beyond Posteriors: The Predictive Cost of ELBO Binding
- Understanding Diffusion Models via Ratio-Based Function Approximation with SignReLU Networks