Difference-in-Differences on a Censored Rating Scale Can Manufacture an Effect: Evidence from a Pre-Registered LLM-Judge Audit

arXiv:2608.27309 · cs.CL, cs.AI, cs.CY · Submitted 2026-08-27 · Read on arXiv

cs.CL, cs.AI, cs.CY

Submitted: 2026-08-27

Updated: 2026-10-25

Comments: Accepted at NewInML Workshop at NeurIPS 2026

License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

The gist: LLM-judge audits assess bias by comparing ratings across matched conditions.

Terminology

Abstract

LLM-judge audits assess bias by comparing ratings across matched conditions. Difference-in-differences designs compare two candidate responses within each item and then compare that contrast across a manipulated attribute. We show in closed form that this endpoint need not identify differential preference on the latent scale when ratings are bounded. A severity shift common to both responses produces an observed interaction whenever the scale bounds attenuate it unequally. We examine this problem in a pre-registered audit comprising 990 calls to a frozen pedagogy judge. The registered primary analysis did not detect an effect of the stated learner profile on scaffolding preference. The only nominally significant secondary interaction concerned productive struggle (+0.378 points; p = 0.002). A post-hoc construction with zero differential preference reproduced 79 to 85% of this interaction using the observed severity shift and the scale floor alone. The observed interaction therefore does not identify differential preference on the latent scale.

Sources

Related papers