Learning from Uncertainty-dependent Missing Labels for Semi-supervised Classification

arXiv:2608.23960 · math.ST, stat.ME, stat.ML, stat.TH · Submitted 2026-08-25 · Read on arXiv

math.ST, stat.ME, stat.ML, stat.TH

Submitted: 2026-08-25

Updated: 2026-08-25

Comments: 20 pages, 3 figures

License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

The gist: Missing labels are usually regarded as a source of information loss in classification.

Terminology

Abstract

Missing labels are usually regarded as a source of information loss in classification. We study a semi-supervised setting in which the probability of label missingness depends on the observed features through posterior classification uncertainty. In this setting, the missingness indicator is not only a record of an unobserved label, but also an observable signal generated by a mechanism linked to the classifier. We develop a likelihood-based information theory for such uncertainty-dependent missing labels. Under correct specification, we derive a Fisher-information decomposition that separates a partial-labeling component from a nonnegative mechanism-curvature term. Under joint misspecification of the label model and the missingness mechanism, we obtain the corresponding Godambe--Eicker--Huber--White sensitivity and sandwich-covariance partitions. We also clarify the relevant complete-data benchmark: favorable missingness can increase information relative to ordinary fully labeled or budget-matched non-informative labeling baselines, but cannot exceed the information in the augmented experiment in which labels and mechanism indicators are both observed. For plug-in classifiers, we connect the information decomposition to margin-based excess-risk bounds. In regular two-component mixture settings this yields the parametric n-1 excess-risk rate, with constants determined by the nuisance-adjusted information in discriminant directions. Gaussian-mixture calculations and a medical diagnosis example illustrate how uncertainty-dependent labeling mechanisms can improve estimation and classification under a fixed labeling budget.

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