Analytic Spread Complexity from Level Statistics: From Chaos to Integrability

Spread complexity has emerged as a useful probe of quantum chaos, yet the microscopic spectral origin of its characteristic finite-time peak remains incompletely understood. We develop an analytic framework that relates spread complexity directly to local spectral statistics. Starting from an energy-space representation of the Krylov kernel, we show that the kernel is approximately banded, leading to a rapidly convergent diagonal expansion dominated by nearby levels in the ordered spectrum. Motivated by this structure, we propose an approximate kernel-universality hypothesis: after unfolding, the Krylov kernel is well approximated by that of a uniform lattice. Combining this universal kernel with local spectral statistics yields a simple analytic expression for spread complexity in terms of the Fourier transforms of the k-th nearest-neighbour spacing distributions. In particular, at leading order, the finite-time peak is controlled by the Fourier transform of the nearest-neighbour spacing distribution. The resulting framework describes both chaotic random-matrix ensembles and the integrable Poisson limit, identifies the spectral origin of the complexity peak and its late-time behaviour, and provides a direct connection between Krylov dynamics and spectral statistics.