German parties shifted towards intuition-based rhetoric after the far right's parliamentary breakthrough
Peer Saleth, Segun T. Aroyehun, Fabio Carrella, Christoph M. Abels, Stephan Lewandowsky, David Garcia
cs.CL
Submitted: 2026-08-05
Comments: 34 pages, 6 figures; includes 49 pages of Supplementary Information. Code available at https://github.com/peersal/German-EMI, data at https://osf.io/x3zpc/
Code: https://github.com/peersal/German-EMI
License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
The gist: The spread of misinformation is widely perceived as a threat to democratic deliberation, yet how political elites' rhetorical commitments to truth shift alongside the rise of populist actors remains
Terminology
Abstract
The spread of misinformation is widely perceived as a threat to democratic deliberation, yet how political elites' rhetorical commitments to truth shift alongside the rise of populist actors remains poorly understood. Analysing 4.5 million tweets and 59,170 parliamentary speeches by German political elites between 2015 and 2025, we measure evidence-based and intuition-based rhetoric using a validated distributed dictionary representation. Across both arenas, intuition-based language has become more prominent, and right-leaning actors consistently exhibit the lowest Evidence Minus Intuition (EMI) scores. The parliamentary entry of the extreme-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in 2017 coincides with sharp downward shifts in EMI across the broader chamber, while a more gradual decline is observed on Twitter. These findings document an association between far-right visibility and a changing approach to truth in elite discourse in a multiparty European democracy.
Sources
- "Everything I Disagree With is #FakeNews": Correlating Political Polarization and Spread of Misinformation
- Epistemic orientation in parliamentary discourse is associated with deliberative democracy
- BERTopic: Neural topic modeling with a class-based TF-IDF procedure
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