When Is a Conformal Guarantee Fair? Auditing Silent Subgroup Under-Coverage in Alzheimer's Disease Longitudinal Prediction

arXiv:2608.04254 · stat.ME, stat.ML · Submitted 2026-08-04 · Read on arXiv

Lujia Zhong, Xinkai Wang, Shuo Huang, Yonggang Shi

stat.ME, stat.ML

Submitted: 2026-08-04

Code: https://github.com/Vekteur/multi-output-conformal-regression

License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

Terminology

• Calibration — 29× in this paper · explained in 9 episodes
• Conformal Prediction — 19× in this paper · explained in 11 episodes
• Trace — 6× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Exchangeability — 3× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Copula — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• External Validation — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Medical Image Computing and Computer Assisted Intervention — 2× in this paper
• Model-Agnostic — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Normalizing Flow — 2× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Normalizing Flows — 2× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Conformal Prediction (CP) — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Conformity — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Distribution Shift — 1× in this paper · explained in 12 episodes
• Empirical Coverage — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Hyperparameters — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• In International Conference on Learning Representations — 1× in this paper
• Latent Dynamics — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Longitudinal Data — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Probabilistic Forecasting — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Uncertainty Quantification — 1× in this paper · explained in 9 episodes

Sources

• A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification
• Class-Conditional Conformal Prediction with Many Classes
• Uncertainty-Calibrated Prediction of Randomly-Timed Biomarker Trajectories with Conformal Bands

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