Calibrated Bayesian Inference for Stochastic Intervention Effects

arXiv:2608.02924 · stat.ME, math.ST, stat.ML · Submitted 2026-08-03 · Read on arXiv

Tyler M. Schmidt, Nathan B. Wikle

stat.ME, math.ST, stat.ML

Submitted: 2026-08-03

Comments: 78 pages, 6 figures

Code: https://github.com/tyler3schmidt/Stochastic_Interventions

License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

Terminology

• Bayesian Inference — 50× in this paper · explained in 6 episodes
• Causal Inference — 24× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Bernstein-von Mises — 13× in this paper
• Sparsity — 7× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Consistency — 6× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Regularization — 6× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Uncertainty Quantification — 6× in this paper · explained in 9 episodes
• Bayesian Additive Regression Trees — 4× in this paper
• Influence Functions — 4× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Bayesian Framework — 3× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Exchangeability — 3× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Trace — 3× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Uncertainty Propagation — 3× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Inflation — 2× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Augmentation — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Benchmark — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Calibration — 1× in this paper · explained in 9 episodes
• Core — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Data Fusion — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Fisher Information — 1× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Generative Model — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Generative Models — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Hilbert Space — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Papers — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Reinforcement Learning — 1× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Resource Constraints — 1× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Robustness — 1× in this paper · explained in 6 episodes
• Verification — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes

Sources

• Multivariate incremental effects for continuous treatments: Studying the health effects of environmental mixtures
• SoftBart: Soft Bayesian Additive Regression Trees
• Incremental effects for continuous exposures
• Higher-Order Efficient Estimators: A Review and Simulation-Based Benchmark Study

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