Semi-analytical Light Curve Model for Transients Preceding Binary Mergers. I: Supernova Precursor Emission from Compact Object Companions

arXiv:2607.20599 · astro-ph.HE, astro-ph.SR · Submitted 2026-07-22 · Read on arXiv

Daichi Tsuna, Morgan Macleod, V. Ashley Villar

astro-ph.HE, astro-ph.SR

Submitted: 2026-07-22

Comments: 15 pages, 9 figures (+ Appendix). To be submitted. Source code available at https://github.com/DTsuna/merger-light-curve-models

Code: https://github.com/DTsuna/merger-light-curve-models

License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

The gist: A binary undergoing dynamically unstable mass transfer could rapidly shrink its orbit and lead to a merger, with the whole process often observable in human timescales.

Terminology

Abstract

A binary undergoing dynamically unstable mass transfer could rapidly shrink its orbit and lead to a merger, with the whole process often observable in human timescales. We construct a semi-analytical light curve model of binary systems composed of a star and a compact object accretor, that would display long-rising accretion-powered emission prior to a final merger-driven explosion. We apply the model to the precursors of interacting supernovae (SNe) that display long-rising light curves of years, SN 2023zkd, 2023fyq and 2021qqp, demonstrating the model's capability of inferring the mass-transfer history and constraining the progenitor binary system. The model and the parameter inference framework, encapsulated in a publicly-released script, can be applied to existing long-rising precursors of SNe as well as many SN precursors to be discovered by surveys like those from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory.

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