A Fixed-Effects Causal Forest for Staggered Adoption, with an Application to Medicaid Expansion

arXiv:2607.19644 · econ.EM, stat.ML · Submitted 2026-07-22 · Read on arXiv

Harry Aytug

econ.EM, stat.ML

Submitted: 2026-07-22

Comments: 16 pages, 1 figure, 7 tables. JEL: C14, C21, C23, I13, J38

License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

Terminology

• Residualization — 9× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Consistency — 7× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Benchmark — 6× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Robustness — 2× in this paper · explained in 6 episodes
• Accuracy — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Asymptotic Normality — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Calibration — 1× in this paper · explained in 9 episodes
• Census Small Area Health Insurance Estimates — 1× in this paper
• Feature Importance — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Trace — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes

Sources

• Machine Learning for Staggered Difference-in-Differences and Dynamic Treatment Effect Heterogeneity
• Doubly Robust Uniform Confidence Bands for Group-Time Conditional Average Treatment Effects in Difference-in-Differences
• Anomaly-induced transport phenomena from the imaginary-time formalism

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