Combining gravitational wave search pipelines to find subthreshold signals in GWTC-5.0

arXiv:2607.07272 · gr-qc, astro-ph.HE, astro-ph.IM · Submitted 2026-07-08 · Read on arXiv

Ann-Kristin Malz, Samuel Russell, Gregory Ashton, Nicolo Colombo

gr-qc, astro-ph.HE, astro-ph.IM

Submitted: 2026-07-08

Comments: Submitted to PRD

License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

The gist: The detection of transient gravitational wave signals relies on independent search algorithms that analyse detector data and assign significance measures to candidate events.

Terminology

Abstract

The detection of transient gravitational wave signals relies on independent search algorithms that analyse detector data and assign significance measures to candidate events. However, varying performance complicates their interpretation. We use supervised machine learning combined with conformal prediction, a framework to quantify uncertainties, to merge multi-pipeline information into well-calibrated confidence scores. We demonstrate that this approach is robust across different classifier architectures and remains stable when trained on different simulated datasets. When applied to events across the GWTC catalogue up to and including the second part of the fourth observing run, the framework identifies several subthreshold candidates with elevated confidence, including the binary neutron star candidate GW200311 103121. We examine the reliability of these up-rankings, finding evidence that high-confidence predictions correspond to signal-like events. This framework enables simplified systematic candidate assessment for gravitational wave catalogues and real-time alerts by providing a single, well-calibrated confidence measure per candidate.

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