Denoised Conformal Alignment for Reliable Selection of Conditional Average Treatment Effect Predictions

arXiv:2607.03161 · stat.ML, cs.LG · Submitted 2026-07-03 · Read on arXiv

Xinyun Lu, Haoang Chi, Zhiheng Zhang

stat.ML, cs.LG

Submitted: 2026-07-03

Comments: 53 pages, 29 figures

License: http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

Terminology

• Calibration — 105× in this paper · explained in 9 episodes
• Benchmark — 21× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Covariate Shift — 18× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Robustness — 17× in this paper · explained in 6 episodes
• Consistency — 14× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Post-Selection — 14× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Denoised Conformal Alignment — 13× in this paper
• Exchangeability — 12× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Ablation — 8× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Accuracy — 7× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• False Discovery Rate — 7× in this paper
• Causal Inference — 6× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Monotonicity — 6× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Conformal Prediction — 4× in this paper · explained in 11 episodes
• Core — 4× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Inflation — 4× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Uncertainty Quantification — 4× in this paper · explained in 9 episodes
• Fixed Point — 3× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Conformal Prediction (CP) — 2× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Graceful Degradation — 2× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Representation Learning — 2× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Ablation Studies — 1× in this paper · explained in 1 episode
• Ablation Study — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Anisotropy — 1× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Conditional Independence — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Conformity — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Failure Modes — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Foundation Model — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Foundation Models — 1× in this paper · explained in 8 episodes
• Generalization — 1× in this paper · explained in 14 episodes
• Generalization Bounds — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Generator — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Heavy-Tailed Noise — 1× in this paper · explained in 3 episodes
• Information Leakage — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Interpretability — 1× in this paper · explained in 15 episodes
• Leakage Control — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Model-Agnostic — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Pruning — 1× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Selection Bias — 1× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Selective Prediction — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes

Sources

• Optimized Conformal Selection: Powerful Selective Inference After Data-Dependent Score Construction
• ACS: An interactive framework for conformal selection
• Unified Conformalized Multiple Testing with Full Data Efficiency

Related papers

• Behavior of prediction performance metrics with rare events
• Optimal Estimation of Generic Dynamics by Path-Dependent Neural Jump ODEs
• A Posterior-Dynamics Framework for Imaging Inverse Problems with Pretrained Diffusion Priors
• Scalable Posterior Uncertainty for Flexible Density-Based Clustering
• A Transport Geometry of Benign Overfitting
• Efficient quadratic entropy with distance sketches