Reinforcement Learning for LLM-based Event Forecasting

arXiv:2606.15917 · cs.LG · Submitted 2026-06-14 · Read on arXiv

cs.LG

Submitted: 2026-06-14

Updated: 2026-06-14

Code: https://github.com/willccbb/verifiers

Terminology

• GRPO — 2× in this paper · explained in 6 episodes
• Reinforcement Learning — 2× in this paper · explained in 4 episodes
• Aleatoric Uncertainty — 1× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Group Relative Policy Optimization — 1× in this paper
• Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) — 1× in this paper · explained in 5 episodes
• Transformer — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes

Sources

• DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning
• A Comprehensive Survey of Continual Learning: Theory, Method and Application
• DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models
• Qwen2.5 Technical Report
• Attention Is All You Need
• Dated Data: Tracing Knowledge Cutoffs in Large Language Models
• AutoCast++: Enhancing World Event Prediction with Zero-shot Ranking-based Context Retrieval
• Outcome-based Reinforcement Learning to Predict the Future
• Forecasting Future World Events with Neural Networks
• Evaluating LLMs on Real-World Forecasting Against Expert Forecasters
• Consistency Checks for Language Model Forecasters
• Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems

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