Evaluating Neural Probabilistic Forecasts of Sparse Earthquake Counts: What Survives a Careful Evaluation

arXiv:2605.21437 · physics.geo-ph, cs.LG, stat.ML · Submitted 2026-05-20 · Read on arXiv

physics.geo-ph, cs.LG, stat.ML

Submitted: 2026-05-20

Updated: 2026-10-22

Terminology

• Calibration — 1× in this paper · explained in 9 episodes
• Clustering — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes
• Embeddings — 1× in this paper · explained in 2 episodes

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