TempusBench: An Evaluation Framework for Time-Series Forecasting
cs.LG
Submitted: 2026-04-13
Updated: 2026-10-05
Comments: Technical report. Adds authors and corrects references
Code: https://github.com/Smlcrm/TempusBench
License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
The gist: Foundation models have transformed natural language processing and computer vision, and a rapidly growing literature on time-series foundation models (TSFMs) seeks to replicate this success in
Terminology
Abstract
Foundation models have transformed natural language processing and computer vision, and a rapidly growing literature on time-series foundation models (TSFMs) seeks to replicate this success in forecasting. While recent open-source models demonstrate the promise of TSFMs, the field lacks a comprehensive and community-accepted model evaluation framework. We see at least four major issues impeding progress on the development of such a framework. First, existing evaluation frameworks comprise benchmark forecasting tasks derived from often outdated datasets (e.g., M3), many of which lack clear metadata and overlap with the corpora used to pre-train TSFMs. Second, these frameworks evaluate models along a narrowly defined set of benchmark forecasting tasks, such as forecast horizon length or domain, but overlook core statistical properties such as non-stationarity and seasonality. Third, domain-specific models (e.g., XGBoost) are often compared unfairly, as existing frameworks do not enforce a systematic and consistent hyperparameter tuning convention for all models. Fourth, visualization tools for interpreting comparative performance are lacking. To address these issues, we introduce TempusBench, an open-source evaluation framework for TSFMs. TempusBench consists of 1) new datasets which are not included in existing TSFM pretraining corpora, 2) a set of novel benchmark tasks that go beyond existing ones, 3) a model evaluation pipeline with a standardized hyperparameter tuning protocol, and 4) a tensorboard-based visualization interface. We provide access to our code on GitHub: https://github.com/Smlcrm/TempusBench and maintain a live leaderboard at https://smlcrm.com/tempusbench.
Sources
- Moirai-MoE: Empowering Time Series Foundation Models with Sparse Mixture of Experts
- Lag-Llama: Towards Foundation Models for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting
- MOMENT: A Family of Open Time-series Foundation Models
- Chronos-2: From Univariate to Universal Forecasting
- Kairos: Toward Adaptive and Parameter-Efficient Time Series Foundation Models
- This Time is Different: An Observability Perspective on Time Series Foundation Models
- Sundial: A Family of Highly Capable Time Series Foundation Models
- GIFT-Eval: A Benchmark For General Time Series Forecasting Model Evaluation
- Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformers
- Forecasting Economics and Financial Time Series: ARIMA vs. LSTM
- The Pile: An 800GB Dataset of Diverse Text for Language Modeling
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