ScoringBench: A Benchmark for Evaluating Tabular Foundation Models with Proper Scoring Rules
cs.AI
Submitted: 2026-03-31
Updated: 2026-10-12
Code: https://github.com/jonaslandsgesell/ScoringBench
Project page: https://scoringbench.com
License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/
The gist: Tabular foundation models such as TabPFN, TabICL, ExaOneTabular, and Nori already produce full predictive distributions, yet prevailing regression benchmarks evaluate them almost exclusively via
Terminology
Abstract
Tabular foundation models such as TabPFN, TabICL, ExaOneTabular, and Nori already produce full predictive distributions, yet prevailing regression benchmarks evaluate them almost exclusively via point-estimate metrics such as RMSE. This overlooks the distributional information these models are designed to provide. We introduce ScoringBench, an open and extensible benchmark that evaluates tabular regression models under a comprehensive suite of proper scoring rules - including (weighted) CRPS, energy scores and interval scores - alongside standard point metrics. ScoringBench covers 101 regression datasets from diverse domains, supports transparent community contributions via a git-based leaderboard, and provides two complementary ranking protocols: an ordinal Demsar/autorank approach and a magnitude-preserving z-score ranking approach. Our evaluation of various model types, including (fine-tuned) tabular foundation models, gradient-boosted trees, and MLPs, shows that model rankings shift depending on the chosen scoring rule. Models that perform well on point-estimate metrics can rank lower on probabilistic ones. These findings demonstrate that evaluation metric selection is a core modeling decision and a domain-specific requirement for applications where certain types of errors carry higher consequences.
Sources
- TabICLv2: A better, faster, scalable, and open tabular foundation model
- TabPFN: A Transformer That Solves Small Tabular Classification Problems in a Second
- TabArena: A Living Benchmark for Machine Learning on Tabular Data
- Distributional Regression with Tabular Foundation Models: Evaluating Probabilistic Predictions via Proper Scoring Rules
- Asymmetric Penalties Underlie Proper Loss Functions in Probabilistic Forecasting
- Real-TabPFN: Improving Tabular Foundation Models via Continued Pre-training With Real-World Data
- TabPFN-2.5: Advancing the State of the Art in Tabular Foundation Models
- Benchmarking Tabular Foundation Models for Conditional Density Estimation in Regression
- OmniTabBench: Mapping the Empirical Frontiers of GBDTs, Neural Networks, and Foundation Models for Tabular Data at Scale
- XGBoostLSS -- An extension of XGBoost to probabilistic forecasting
- TabM: Advancing Tabular Deep Learning with Parameter-Efficient Ensembling
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