Staggered Integral Online Conformal Prediction for Safe Dynamics Adaptation with Multi-Step Coverage Guarantees
The research introduces Staggered Integral Online Conformal Prediction (SI-OCP) to quantify model uncertainty in adaptive systems where state derivatives are unavailable. SI-OCP uses an integral score function over a rolling window of data to estimate the combined effect of disturbances and learning errors. This method provides long-run coverage guarantees, ensuring probabilistic safety when integrated with controllers like robust tube MPC.