Intermediate States in Chaotic Triple Evolution and Applications to Black Hole Merger Statistics
This study re-derives how three-body systems evolve chaotically, focusing on 'intermediate states' where a binary interacts with a distant third body. Using statistical mechanics, the authors quantified these states and developed a Monte Carlo method to predict Observably Eccentric Merger (OEM) gravitational waves from dense star clusters. The results show that OEM mergers constitute about 2.6% to 4.4% of total mergers.