Just Weather Scoring: Efficient End-to-end Nowcasting with Distributional Diffusion
Just Weather Scoring (JWS) is a single-stage diffusion model that forecasts precipitation directly in radar space, eliminating the need for separate compression or deterministic forecasting steps. It uses Masked Asynchronous Diffusion and a simple scoring-rule objective to achieve state-of-the-art probabilistic nowcasting performance while drastically reducing training and inference costs.